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MWC – Welcome mobile – Barcelona

27 February, 2013 No Comments

The Mobile World Congress, or the spot where the mobile industry reunites to do business.

Barcelona, ​​chosen as the capital of the world for mobiles, has been hosting this show since 2006 becoming a referent in new technologies.

The WMC is presented as a showcase for innovation, as well as an opportunity to find industrial partners that may help one develop new technologies… You must take into account that this sector can change very quickly, as we have seen in recent years; a new service that nobody knew or expected may occur at any time influencing the entire sector. If we look back in the last few years, we’ve had a shift from the WEB stage to the social networking sites (i.e. this YouTube video where Michelle Obama shakes up the social network has had 2 million hits in only 24 hours).

and Apps are today’s deal…. .

What will the WMC surprise us with this time? Can’t wait to see it! There will be up to 1,500 companies (Huawei, Samsung, Motorola, Sony, Vodafone, Telefonica, only to mention a few)…. and Privalia, Lets Bonus, Groupalia, Spamina, Digital Legends Entertainment, Zyncro, Abertis Telecom among the local ones….

The mobile world doesn´t pair up with the Spanish crisis, it is estimated that in Spain 16 million people are connected to the network through their smart phones. People can´t manage without their cell phone. In many different sectors of the economy, and specially in the real estate sector, we have reinvented the way we work with new technologies, with cell phones having the greatest impact. We’ve become use to be reachable and connected, resulting in one of the most important part of our life. For example forgetting your cell phone at home may have an impact on your schedule, your work, and even your personal life, and not far from today in trouble with payments. In short, it has become a tool for survival in our day to day, that keeps on covering more and more functions.

The unstoppable tech innovation introduces changes in people’s needs, creating a new social trend that encourages these industries to never stop growing. And we are not talking about a single industry, because it encompasses many others: telephones, hardware or content, in addition to other companies / brands with presence in the mobile or tablet markets.

The mobility sector ignites the emergence of new companies and new jobs, especially in the area of ​​Apps, where individuals with some technological expertise and an idea can develop applications that will be placed in the various market places; the selling points that smart phones offer (App Store, Android Market are the most popular).

 

(III) Mipim2011 the World’s property market: analyzing topics

14 September, 2012 No Comments

In this second post I limit myself to make a synthesis of ideas presented in Dr. N.Roubini’s conference at MIPIM 2011.  Due to the length of the presentation, I focused on what might be more relevant for the real estate investor. Nonetheless, for those who want full details about the presentation, I included the full video in its original version in my previous post.

Core Observations:

1-The question that Dr. Nouriel Roubini arises: Can countries such as China and other emerging countries tighten their monetary policy and their exchange rate to reduce inflation and maintain economic growth in order to get a soft landing of the economy rather than a hard one?

The strength of the economies of the growing emerging markets encourages the risk of a higher inflation. In these markets, there is a clear economic overheating, excessive credit growth, and note that about two thirds of their consumption basket is: oil, energy, food and transportation

2 – A vivid example would be the current situation in the Middle East: What’s happening right now in the Middle East? Nobody could foresee the political movement that took place in early 2011. We don’t know if this is going to stabilize soon, or if it will spread to other countries. This can have an effect on oil and energy prices … In such case, what would be the consequences of higher oil prices?

* There will be a severe problem of inflation of the overheated emerging markets.

* A lower risk of inflation in developed economies since the recovery from the financial crisis is very slow

* It also has an impact on economic growth. Specifically a destabilizing effect in the investor and consumer’s confidence in particular…

3 – In recent years there has been a massive injection of liquidity into the global economy. There were massive fiscal stimulus in the US, Japan, Europe, and other emerging markets, but if we take a look at the current market (as of 2011) we realize that we are in the opposite side: there is less monetary stimulus and more fiscal austerity (countries in Europe and the UK started to cut on spending and tax incentives, as well as the US, who began to cut costs ….. The question is: Will the private market have the possibility to consume in order to have economic growth when some of the fiscal and monetary stimuli are gone?

Areas with potential growth: the U.S. at a 3%, some parts of Europe at a 1.5 to 2%, and emerging markets, eastern countries and South America at a 5-8% growth rate.

4 – TURKEY

Turkey’s growth prospect is very optimistic for the medium to the long term. There is still growth in its population and as a consequence there is a significant domestic market (As a contrary, China’s population is decreasing). It can be a fast-growing economy although structural reforms need to be done. If these reforms are made at a regular pace, the forecast of growth for the future is very positive (real estate growth comes along).
5-RUSSIA

Prices will increase reasonably which will improve Russia’s fiscal balance, and consequently its economic growth. However, the fact that Russia is not a very well-diversified economy prevents growth of being even greater. For example, in 2010 where there was a global economic recovery countries such as India or China grew at a 9% rate or Brazil at a 7.5%, but Russia instead, grew at a 4.5% rate.

Its current situation (as of 2011) is slow growth and a 2 digit inflation, and unless structural reforms are put in place to accelerate growth, the former will be slowed down. Even though Russia has great potential for growth given its vast natural resources, a good education system, and good scientists, there will be a direct relationship between what happens to oil prices and the growth of Russia. If oil prices rise the Russian economy will be stronger because it will improve the country’s economic balance. But, what should really be a concern is the long-term growth of their economy, and foreign investors are aware of it, and with it, aware of the risk of expropriation.

6-USA

Currently there is an oversupply of existing houses. Home sales fell up to 80% of its highs, even though now are gradually increasing. However, home prices are still adjusted downward, inflation is present in the economy, unemployment is still high and people who are forced to leave their homes because they can’t pay their mortgages. Prices have adjusted by a 30%, but may have not bottomed out, and it might require a longer period of time for these adjustments to run out.

7 – EUROZONE

Fiscal austerity is urgently needed in the Euro zone, the UK and Japan. Even though a period of austerity is a “must”, it will have in the short term a negative effect on economic growth. Austerity means to cut on government spending, to fire public officials… but it will make the economic recovery more effective in the long run.